* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 55 63 68 80 92 96 103 105 106 107 108 V (KT) LAND 45 49 55 63 68 80 92 74 80 58 59 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 58 64 74 84 70 82 61 64 73 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 4 1 4 8 9 8 16 13 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 2 0 -4 2 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 137 285 284 326 264 325 314 293 281 290 237 249 240 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 152 151 150 149 153 158 162 166 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 156 152 150 149 146 144 145 148 151 152 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 53 58 59 59 60 60 57 62 64 68 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 13 16 16 18 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR 71 60 61 65 64 59 71 51 71 65 91 87 106 200 MB DIV 64 57 65 107 82 33 71 19 81 35 62 65 91 700-850 TADV 2 3 6 0 0 2 -2 0 -2 9 0 16 22 LAND (KM) 514 511 418 284 182 131 34 33 60 -41 57 134 116 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.6 22.3 23.5 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.9 62.7 64.1 65.5 68.0 70.7 72.9 74.6 76.1 77.4 78.7 79.8 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 67 71 79 89 65 80 97 18 101 98 56 95 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 23. 35. 47. 51. 58. 60. 61. 62. 63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/21/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 7( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)