* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 38 40 38 35 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 38 40 38 35 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 35 37 38 40 41 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 10 13 11 12 14 12 17 22 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -3 -6 -3 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 130 154 142 178 201 236 217 223 219 219 232 246 260 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 112 110 110 111 111 110 111 113 116 121 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 106 104 103 104 103 101 101 102 104 107 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 61 56 53 53 52 53 52 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 105 94 87 87 82 62 43 18 19 -9 -13 -31 -37 200 MB DIV 36 17 24 31 41 41 16 17 19 12 1 -5 -12 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 2 8 4 10 12 8 13 6 7 3 LAND (KM) 1011 1131 1253 1386 1505 1714 1911 2123 2325 2345 2321 2210 2066 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.5 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 27.9 28.9 30.1 31.2 33.4 35.4 37.5 39.5 41.5 43.5 45.4 47.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 13. 10. 8. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/21/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)