* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 64 74 81 86 91 94 93 98 99 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 64 74 53 48 44 35 38 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 52 55 59 65 48 44 42 34 41 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 8 9 9 12 8 14 8 18 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 3 3 0 5 0 3 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 246 263 268 257 239 327 249 289 264 240 269 254 272 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 151 150 147 151 157 160 163 167 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 150 149 146 141 143 148 149 150 153 157 159 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 56 54 60 55 53 59 54 61 62 67 69 69 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 18 19 21 23 24 24 24 27 27 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 65 55 55 58 46 57 43 63 69 98 94 113 106 200 MB DIV 59 51 66 78 49 89 9 71 64 85 46 70 14 700-850 TADV 5 11 6 7 6 -8 6 12 7 20 20 22 25 LAND (KM) 581 434 256 128 67 30 -59 22 -40 -11 54 158 -33 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.6 24.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 62.2 63.9 65.3 66.7 69.0 71.3 73.5 75.4 76.9 78.0 79.3 80.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 14 13 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 74 79 84 67 68 81 85 94 97 0 16 77 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 9. 9. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 36. 41. 46. 49. 48. 53. 54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/21/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)