* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 38 42 43 43 42 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 38 42 43 43 42 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 37 39 41 43 45 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 7 10 9 9 14 13 15 14 20 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -4 4 1 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 99 122 172 202 225 233 244 266 252 242 243 259 283 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 112 110 110 111 111 110 110 113 116 118 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 105 103 103 103 102 101 100 101 102 102 104 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 61 60 56 56 55 54 56 50 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 86 81 72 67 52 40 13 3 -12 -15 -34 -40 -52 200 MB DIV 12 20 23 19 35 24 10 27 41 31 -8 -3 -15 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 4 6 9 5 12 6 16 9 4 1 LAND (KM) 1132 1243 1357 1476 1573 1780 1990 2221 2434 2477 2385 2283 2192 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 20.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 25.1 26.1 26.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.0 29.9 30.9 31.9 34.1 36.2 38.5 40.6 42.5 44.1 45.4 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 13. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/21/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)