* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 10 15 19 19 19 14 13 12 13 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -7 -5 -1 0 -3 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 268 257 220 217 223 212 223 208 216 221 237 N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.4 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.4 23.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 87 87 87 88 90 95 102 102 101 95 90 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 57 52 52 49 42 43 37 35 30 28 24 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 8 6 19 28 24 42 26 29 7 17 1 N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -5 2 12 27 21 -12 -15 -11 -9 -9 -11 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 1 0 -2 1 2 5 4 3 1 4 N/A LAND (KM) 1076 1117 1157 1227 1297 1449 1596 1762 1895 2051 2151 2130 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.3 18.7 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.7 19.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.2 122.8 123.6 124.3 125.8 127.1 128.8 130.4 132.2 133.6 134.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -28. -37. -46. -51. -54. -56. -58. -57. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##