* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 70 76 80 83 89 94 101 99 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 54 44 48 36 44 49 56 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 54 49 36 46 36 43 50 59 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 9 7 7 5 9 12 11 7 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 4 2 0 9 0 1 -3 0 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 257 276 219 256 302 295 248 256 275 225 237 253 233 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 148 149 155 158 162 167 171 172 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 148 146 142 142 147 148 150 153 156 161 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.0 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 57 59 57 55 59 58 55 61 62 64 64 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 19 20 18 23 24 22 23 26 29 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 54 43 45 54 45 61 63 87 77 94 79 200 MB DIV 46 59 77 45 28 62 7 48 33 81 33 55 44 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 6 2 1 10 0 19 6 9 14 19 LAND (KM) 387 223 73 30 45 -13 10 3 -19 36 122 0 -81 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.9 21.0 22.3 23.7 25.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 64.0 65.6 67.0 68.3 70.7 72.9 74.8 76.4 77.8 79.2 80.4 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 13 12 11 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 76 80 64 69 77 52 90 91 0 22 103 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 6. 5. 5. 8. 10. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 25. 31. 35. 38. 44. 49. 56. 54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)