* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 37 40 42 39 36 33 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 37 40 42 39 36 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 39 41 41 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 9 8 12 11 15 12 16 25 28 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 1 1 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 87 171 221 238 237 239 260 257 228 231 248 270 293 SST (C) 26.2 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 110 110 110 110 108 108 109 111 113 116 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 103 103 103 102 99 98 97 98 98 99 100 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 64 63 60 55 52 53 49 45 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 39 25 25 28 15 2 -18 -31 -43 -45 -40 200 MB DIV 21 17 21 33 38 20 21 37 32 13 2 -13 16 700-850 TADV -2 -1 5 4 6 7 16 15 11 2 0 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1123 1252 1374 1470 1573 1792 2013 2232 2422 2442 2317 2227 2156 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.7 23.0 24.4 25.6 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.9 29.9 31.0 32.1 34.3 36.5 38.6 40.4 42.0 43.5 44.7 45.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 14. 11. 8. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)