* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 36 44 54 62 70 77 83 86 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 7 8 11 15 12 10 11 10 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 3 6 2 0 -1 0 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 13 357 1 28 55 68 56 72 89 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 158 159 162 162 160 161 162 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 146 144 146 148 146 145 146 146 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 10 9 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 75 77 77 78 78 72 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 38 36 37 33 29 38 45 58 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 44 45 46 46 55 22 37 33 21 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 -3 -2 5 4 6 -1 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -1 32 -6 -13 -32 -157 -192 -232 -314 -378 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.2 95.1 95.7 96.2 97.7 98.4 99.3 100.6 101.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 6 6 5 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 4 0 1 41 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 29. 37. 45. 52. 58. 61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)