* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 55 60 69 77 80 86 90 95 100 100 V (KT) LAND 45 48 45 51 45 35 43 47 52 57 62 52 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 43 48 43 34 38 44 50 57 64 58 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 11 11 6 4 10 18 9 12 10 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 2 2 8 2 -1 3 0 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 247 238 256 263 303 255 274 261 208 234 215 253 102 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 148 148 151 157 158 161 169 171 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 146 143 142 143 146 144 147 153 156 154 150 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -50.6 -49.7 -49.0 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 58 58 55 60 63 68 67 64 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 17 19 20 24 26 28 31 34 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 53 53 45 46 52 46 66 75 107 107 130 117 117 200 MB DIV 62 74 45 18 33 61 69 30 90 27 80 21 82 700-850 TADV 6 2 0 5 3 -1 12 3 22 13 18 14 7 LAND (KM) 229 83 -13 47 -21 -27 38 24 103 158 115 -35 -72 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.2 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.5 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 65.1 66.5 67.9 69.2 71.8 73.9 75.5 76.7 78.0 79.3 80.5 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 8 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 73 70 53 64 75 82 79 34 67 17 104 45 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 24. 32. 35. 41. 45. 50. 55. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)