* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 55 63 72 77 81 85 87 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 7 6 9 11 7 5 3 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 3 9 6 -1 -1 1 0 8 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 335 346 9 19 32 26 36 62 69 180 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 161 161 163 162 158 161 161 161 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 151 150 149 150 146 139 142 143 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 10 11 8 12 8 13 9 15 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 74 77 78 75 73 68 66 60 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 42 37 34 42 46 57 58 72 67 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 53 64 49 54 54 42 38 45 37 53 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -6 -7 3 5 2 -4 0 -2 7 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 84 55 10 -65 -141 -274 -235 -250 -289 -269 -223 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.2 95.2 96.1 97.0 97.9 99.5 101.0 101.5 101.8 102.6 103.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 8 5 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 12 2 50 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 25. 33. 42. 47. 51. 55. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)