* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 67 75 83 85 89 91 96 95 93 V (KT) LAND 50 46 52 47 42 41 49 51 55 57 62 41 32 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 51 47 41 39 45 53 59 65 70 46 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 5 7 8 10 13 16 13 14 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 4 3 4 0 4 0 3 1 2 7 SHEAR DIR 227 245 271 289 274 283 252 274 250 254 236 226 210 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 146 147 152 157 158 166 169 171 169 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 143 139 139 142 146 145 151 152 152 148 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -49.7 -49.4 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 57 55 56 58 62 67 65 65 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 18 20 21 26 25 29 30 35 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 53 45 41 47 48 51 78 77 106 89 115 97 109 200 MB DIV 83 51 26 33 73 58 52 58 41 63 46 70 85 700-850 TADV 3 0 6 4 0 8 3 14 20 31 16 21 5 LAND (KM) 86 -22 42 -8 -48 10 48 103 172 185 17 -60 -47 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.9 20.7 22.0 23.4 24.9 26.1 27.6 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.5 67.9 69.1 70.3 72.3 74.3 75.8 77.2 78.6 80.0 81.0 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 70 76 64 14 74 0 46 81 85 21 53 16 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 10. 11. 15. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 33. 35. 39. 41. 46. 45. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)