* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 31 26 21 19 17 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 31 26 21 19 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 31 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 9 12 19 16 22 32 36 37 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 0 -3 0 1 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 247 238 220 226 234 247 254 249 257 266 270 285 292 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 110 109 108 105 106 106 108 110 112 113 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 102 101 99 95 95 94 94 95 96 97 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 66 64 61 58 54 52 48 43 43 39 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 33 35 32 24 3 -5 -21 -34 -44 -49 -48 -57 200 MB DIV 7 31 39 38 12 4 25 16 7 -25 -17 -1 -14 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 8 8 10 4 7 0 -2 1 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 1375 1461 1556 1652 1747 1947 2139 2319 2463 2414 2377 2373 2344 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.8 24.2 25.4 26.2 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 33.9 35.8 37.6 39.3 40.7 42.2 43.3 44.1 44.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 10 10 7 7 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -2. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -4. -6. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)