* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 57 65 71 75 80 83 86 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 6 6 8 9 10 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 9 5 4 0 2 4 13 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 340 358 357 7 13 23 29 321 293 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 164 165 163 163 161 160 161 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 152 152 153 148 146 145 143 142 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 8 9 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 81 79 78 75 72 71 65 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 31 34 46 43 60 60 75 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 69 75 70 63 65 51 49 56 59 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -9 0 4 3 5 -4 2 -5 8 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -36 -80 -156 -214 -253 -189 -178 -206 -221 -228 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.6 97.5 98.2 98.9 100.4 101.0 101.5 102.5 103.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 5 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 35. 41. 45. 50. 53. 56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/22/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/22/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)