* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 34 34 32 30 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 34 34 32 30 27 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 34 35 35 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 15 16 15 21 22 25 28 35 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -4 1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 235 226 207 223 235 232 255 249 259 259 283 284 287 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 110 109 108 106 107 108 111 114 118 122 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 102 99 98 96 96 96 98 100 102 106 108 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 56 50 53 50 44 39 37 37 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 37 33 20 13 -14 -26 -40 -41 -53 -46 -44 200 MB DIV 32 38 34 21 11 15 0 8 -15 -5 -13 5 -14 700-850 TADV 6 6 11 9 6 9 1 3 -3 1 -4 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 1486 1590 1699 1792 1879 2077 2263 2439 2540 2401 2269 2148 2039 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.7 24.6 25.2 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.3 33.4 34.3 35.2 37.1 38.9 40.6 42.2 43.8 45.2 46.4 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/22/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)