* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 81 84 88 92 92 96 100 102 100 99 92 V (KT) LAND 70 76 81 84 88 92 92 96 100 102 100 99 62 V (KT) LGE mod 70 77 82 85 86 86 86 87 90 92 93 93 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 12 9 12 10 15 12 10 6 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 7 7 2 8 0 2 -1 4 5 -4 SHEAR DIR 247 254 254 265 252 238 255 225 201 193 244 174 182 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 152 153 157 166 169 162 158 151 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 142 141 141 141 143 151 152 143 138 132 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -49.6 -49.1 -47.8 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 54 57 54 53 52 56 61 66 65 61 59 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 21 20 23 26 26 30 35 39 39 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 39 29 38 66 69 101 97 106 95 110 122 200 MB DIV 42 58 78 53 66 48 28 34 62 50 50 85 56 700-850 TADV 8 11 3 1 9 10 24 18 25 17 14 4 0 LAND (KM) 44 73 33 28 66 133 151 234 262 122 51 30 -87 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.1 22.2 23.6 25.1 26.6 28.1 30.1 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.2 69.3 70.4 71.4 73.2 74.9 76.4 77.7 78.9 80.0 81.0 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 35 20 59 70 77 79 59 76 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 9. 13. 16. 16. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 18. 22. 22. 26. 30. 32. 30. 29. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 11( 21) 13( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 7( 8) 5( 13) 14( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)