* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 35 35 33 29 29 28 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 35 35 33 29 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 33 33 33 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 17 17 14 25 29 34 33 31 29 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -5 -3 2 -1 -1 -4 0 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 248 222 234 243 251 243 259 265 268 279 296 300 295 SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 108 108 109 110 109 111 111 111 112 113 114 115 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 100 100 100 99 99 97 97 97 97 98 98 100 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 52 53 50 49 43 42 39 40 37 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 8 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 33 18 12 -3 -24 -40 -37 -50 -38 -50 -44 200 MB DIV 26 24 23 14 3 21 -5 -6 -7 -8 0 -18 -15 700-850 TADV 5 8 12 12 11 4 4 -1 -2 -3 -6 -7 -10 LAND (KM) 1618 1714 1807 1907 2006 2178 2338 2480 2414 2371 2326 2249 2162 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.3 23.9 25.3 26.1 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.6 34.5 35.5 36.4 38.0 39.5 41.0 42.5 43.8 44.9 45.6 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 4. 4. 3. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)