* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 81 84 86 87 88 92 92 91 94 92 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 81 84 86 87 88 92 92 91 94 71 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 77 78 79 78 78 80 83 85 87 90 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 15 6 13 18 7 10 8 8 6 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 9 9 7 3 8 3 2 0 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 240 258 236 241 266 229 249 191 255 197 228 195 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 152 153 155 160 170 166 156 155 154 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 141 141 142 147 154 148 137 134 133 126 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -49.5 -49.3 -48.7 -48.3 -48.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 53 55 57 63 64 65 60 61 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 21 22 24 28 28 29 34 36 36 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 35 42 64 73 106 93 103 91 107 113 165 200 MB DIV 77 86 57 83 85 24 64 48 65 42 93 44 79 700-850 TADV 11 1 9 10 14 23 22 19 25 16 11 6 8 LAND (KM) 81 33 17 50 83 106 133 216 230 158 129 140 -66 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.6 21.3 22.3 23.8 25.7 27.5 29.0 31.0 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 69.3 70.4 71.4 72.3 74.1 75.9 77.1 77.9 78.6 79.4 79.9 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 54 39 10 41 74 71 67 90 27 30 50 13 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 10. 12. 12. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 22. 22. 21. 24. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/22/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/22/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 9( 18) 10( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 4( 11) 17( 26) 17( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)