* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 28 29 29 27 25 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 28 29 29 27 25 24 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 30 31 31 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 18 11 15 22 30 31 31 30 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -5 0 0 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 225 231 237 253 253 243 243 258 269 289 288 284 266 SST (C) 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 108 110 111 112 113 113 114 115 115 117 120 124 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 101 103 102 101 101 101 101 102 105 107 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 53 52 53 52 47 43 42 43 39 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 13 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 24 22 20 -12 -25 -41 -39 -46 -43 -41 -68 200 MB DIV 20 21 3 7 17 4 -2 -7 1 -1 -3 -21 -16 700-850 TADV 10 7 8 13 9 5 4 0 3 -8 -5 -13 -6 LAND (KM) 1721 1823 1925 2028 2137 2313 2498 2480 2333 2189 2053 1922 1801 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.3 25.0 25.4 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.6 35.6 36.7 37.7 39.4 41.2 42.9 44.5 46.0 47.4 48.7 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 15 22 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. -6. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/22/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)