* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/23/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 90 92 93 90 94 97 98 93 91 88 84 V (KT) LAND 85 88 90 92 93 90 94 97 98 93 91 88 55 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 92 92 91 87 86 88 89 89 89 87 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 11 15 16 13 13 8 13 12 16 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 9 7 7 4 1 7 -3 1 -5 2 2 SHEAR DIR 256 260 252 239 231 268 231 211 218 234 177 211 189 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 151 153 155 164 165 159 154 155 152 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 142 140 140 142 150 146 139 135 135 130 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.3 -49.1 -48.8 -47.9 -48.5 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 9 2 5 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 53 55 58 66 66 64 64 61 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 22 24 27 23 29 33 36 36 37 40 42 850 MB ENV VOR 43 34 36 56 76 71 101 89 88 83 105 115 132 200 MB DIV 68 39 52 73 47 32 30 55 41 39 92 70 59 700-850 TADV 3 4 15 25 13 16 12 23 14 21 2 10 3 LAND (KM) 68 44 77 113 133 174 283 293 212 201 249 61 -110 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.1 22.1 23.9 25.4 26.6 28.4 30.7 32.9 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.9 71.1 72.1 73.0 74.3 76.0 77.3 78.0 78.5 78.8 78.8 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 9 8 10 11 8 8 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 62 66 70 73 70 69 11 98 67 46 56 7 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 5. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. 9. 12. 13. 8. 6. 3. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/23/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 14( 32) 12( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 10( 22) 26( 42) 17( 52) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)