* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/23/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 91 93 93 95 95 100 98 100 97 94 90 V (KT) LAND 85 88 91 93 93 95 95 100 98 100 97 94 75 V (KT) LGE mod 85 89 91 90 89 87 87 89 93 94 95 96 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 10 13 16 13 7 11 9 10 10 15 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 7 4 7 8 5 0 0 -5 -7 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 248 246 247 255 202 232 202 223 177 213 175 221 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 151 152 153 156 163 166 158 153 154 151 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 140 140 141 142 147 148 139 132 131 127 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -49.7 -49.3 -48.5 -48.2 -47.2 -47.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 57 56 64 65 66 59 56 51 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 22 26 26 28 29 33 34 38 38 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 58 70 69 84 82 96 92 121 123 159 155 200 MB DIV 46 46 65 27 1 67 33 93 50 90 31 79 24 700-850 TADV 8 20 13 9 23 29 21 18 9 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 49 70 100 135 177 212 297 291 161 169 244 94 -36 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.3 29.1 30.8 32.6 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.6 71.4 72.4 73.3 74.9 76.1 77.3 78.5 79.0 78.8 78.6 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 52 71 70 69 75 45 96 15 47 56 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 16. 15. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 15. 13. 15. 12. 9. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/23/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 14( 32) 17( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 43( 49) 47( 73) 74( 93) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)