* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/23/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 56 65 72 79 79 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 56 65 72 79 79 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 53 62 68 69 67 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 9 10 6 6 6 5 4 9 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 4 5 8 9 6 3 5 3 8 2 SHEAR DIR 102 92 88 89 79 36 37 52 72 210 253 286 302 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 127 127 128 122 117 113 111 109 108 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 127 126 125 125 118 109 104 100 98 96 96 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 68 70 65 57 54 56 56 58 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 16 19 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 98 97 94 96 104 103 88 78 53 43 27 30 32 200 MB DIV 31 25 14 7 21 36 25 40 -22 15 28 71 45 700-850 TADV 9 6 0 1 2 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 1 LAND (KM) 238 362 461 572 694 960 1225 1428 1556 1621 1632 1612 1601 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.2 21.3 22.6 23.8 26.4 28.9 30.8 32.0 32.6 32.7 32.5 32.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 11 7 5 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 7 5 6 11 9 4 3 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 31. 40. 47. 54. 54. 53. 54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/23/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/23/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED