* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/23/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 28 29 30 33 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 28 29 30 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 10 13 18 26 25 26 22 20 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 0 2 1 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 230 236 222 232 222 228 255 255 268 271 296 284 287 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 113 114 114 115 116 116 117 119 122 125 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 102 102 103 103 102 103 102 102 103 105 108 109 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 50 51 49 44 42 43 41 43 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 8 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 18 9 -2 -10 -26 -27 -40 -29 -26 -36 -42 200 MB DIV 9 -9 -1 15 5 14 15 13 8 20 -2 -11 -29 700-850 TADV 4 7 9 5 1 7 2 1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1895 1996 2095 2193 2291 2465 2428 2325 2198 2085 1993 1910 1846 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.3 36.3 37.3 38.3 39.2 40.9 42.7 44.4 45.8 47.1 48.2 49.3 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 14 18 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/23/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 08/23/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/23/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)