* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 87 88 86 90 88 92 92 91 93 92 86 V (KT) LAND 85 86 87 88 86 90 88 92 92 91 93 92 49 V (KT) LGE mod 85 85 84 84 83 82 83 85 87 89 91 92 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 17 19 14 9 11 11 16 14 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 7 7 4 3 5 0 -3 -5 -4 1 7 SHEAR DIR 258 226 247 240 275 255 230 226 211 186 231 214 244 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 153 155 162 166 157 152 154 153 148 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 140 141 141 146 149 139 132 130 128 124 112 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -49.6 -49.4 -48.4 -48.5 -47.9 -48.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 7 9 3 700-500 MB RH 52 53 55 56 57 64 64 62 59 54 48 41 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 24 26 25 29 27 34 35 35 39 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 36 59 68 68 66 93 89 87 92 138 150 194 216 200 MB DIV 58 78 33 16 32 44 64 21 75 76 62 52 36 700-850 TADV 18 22 8 18 17 18 18 17 9 1 4 -1 15 LAND (KM) 92 122 145 203 202 281 359 247 240 263 158 0 -149 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.6 25.1 27.0 29.0 30.8 32.2 34.0 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.5 72.4 73.3 74.1 75.5 76.7 77.6 78.2 78.4 78.1 78.0 77.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 66 72 69 69 51 74 85 1 40 53 40 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -3. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 8. 10. 10. 13. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 1. 5. 3. 7. 7. 6. 8. 7. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 10( 27) 12( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 15( 19) 11( 28) 23( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)