* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 56 62 69 71 68 63 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 56 62 69 71 68 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 52 57 61 60 55 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 8 4 5 4 6 2 17 33 44 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 5 7 9 7 2 0 -2 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 89 85 72 16 15 352 6 247 253 252 251 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 126 126 123 116 108 105 105 105 105 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 125 124 124 120 111 101 96 95 94 94 94 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 70 65 61 55 55 51 47 44 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 15 15 17 16 18 19 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 97 94 95 103 103 100 89 85 60 64 57 41 32 200 MB DIV 25 13 9 24 37 11 44 -5 -5 33 37 57 32 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 346 449 547 659 780 1052 1300 1490 1613 1668 1659 1628 1564 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.9 21.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.2 22.3 23.5 24.7 27.3 29.6 31.3 32.3 32.8 32.9 32.7 32.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 11 8 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 7 5 5 6 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 8. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 31. 37. 44. 46. 43. 38. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED