* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 20 21 20 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 20 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 26 25 25 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 18 19 27 30 30 29 30 22 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 4 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 217 218 222 225 234 242 251 250 277 283 280 261 259 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 114 115 116 116 117 117 119 122 126 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 104 107 110 113 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 50 48 51 48 46 44 42 40 42 43 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 10 -4 -7 -12 -23 -26 -34 -29 -38 -55 -74 200 MB DIV -9 -4 16 5 2 7 4 17 15 -12 2 -40 3 700-850 TADV 5 7 3 3 8 -2 5 -1 -5 -10 -3 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 2048 2144 2238 2326 2413 2414 2362 2228 2098 1981 1852 1736 1640 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.6 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.8 38.7 39.6 40.4 42.0 43.7 45.3 46.7 48.0 49.4 50.8 52.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 14 20 25 24 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 08/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)