* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 08/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 47 45 42 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 47 45 42 40 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 31 30 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 15 19 19 16 9 9 11 11 16 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 1 -2 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 49 52 31 47 64 105 118 129 166 179 199 194 206 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.7 25.9 25.1 25.0 25.6 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 146 143 135 132 123 115 114 120 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 80 78 79 77 73 72 69 67 61 64 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 47 58 76 81 123 111 104 99 96 94 75 61 200 MB DIV 54 44 46 41 22 30 0 -11 -18 -30 -44 -31 -37 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -7 -7 -2 1 3 3 6 5 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 137 162 215 282 362 394 556 792 1030 1282 1509 1714 1861 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.1 18.5 17.7 17.0 16.4 16.1 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.2 107.1 108.1 109.0 111.1 113.5 116.0 118.7 121.4 123.7 125.9 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 9 10 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 29 18 18 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 22. 20. 17. 15. 14. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 08/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 08/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##