* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 82 84 85 90 87 88 91 89 88 79 V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 82 84 85 90 87 88 91 89 64 57 V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 80 80 79 79 81 82 82 84 86 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 16 11 12 11 11 6 16 16 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 9 8 4 4 4 1 2 -3 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 243 236 259 270 279 247 212 254 222 226 181 209 181 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 153 155 162 160 152 152 153 147 134 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 138 139 141 147 143 133 131 130 124 113 99 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -49.5 -49.1 -48.1 -48.3 -47.7 -47.6 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 7 9 4 5 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 59 65 65 68 69 70 65 58 51 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 27 26 28 27 33 33 35 40 39 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 60 56 83 79 91 68 85 102 159 167 168 200 MB DIV 103 68 43 25 51 62 67 28 91 49 137 91 55 700-850 TADV 17 12 26 31 32 18 28 20 18 13 7 2 -2 LAND (KM) 100 151 188 218 237 333 346 315 369 244 75 -44 13 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.7 24.2 26.1 28.0 30.0 31.9 33.8 36.0 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.2 72.0 72.8 73.5 74.2 75.6 76.7 77.1 77.2 77.2 77.1 76.4 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 73 71 68 71 59 70 77 39 34 41 7 17 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 7. 8. 12. 11. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 10. 7. 8. 11. 9. 8. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/23/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 9( 22) 10( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 11( 22) 37( 51) 38( 69) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)