* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 53 61 67 66 61 56 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 53 61 67 66 61 56 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 52 57 58 55 49 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 10 10 10 3 5 13 22 37 41 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 1 1 6 3 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 79 78 42 49 29 66 360 332 257 254 250 259 251 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.7 25.9 25.3 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 125 125 121 112 106 102 102 102 102 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 122 121 121 116 104 97 93 92 93 92 90 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 67 65 58 54 52 50 48 47 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 18 17 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 103 101 102 105 106 90 93 69 69 59 33 -4 -49 200 MB DIV 12 13 17 40 43 12 25 -8 19 12 27 32 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 0 -1 LAND (KM) 436 528 628 737 850 1084 1272 1380 1417 1358 1268 1172 1086 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.3 20.5 21.8 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.3 25.4 27.6 29.3 30.2 30.3 29.9 29.2 28.3 27.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 7. 3. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 28. 36. 42. 41. 36. 31. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/23/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED