* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 08/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 41 41 39 36 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 41 41 39 36 36 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 18 18 16 11 7 13 12 17 17 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 -1 0 1 0 3 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 67 40 49 71 91 110 136 156 176 182 183 191 194 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.6 25.9 25.2 25.2 26.1 26.9 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 145 141 137 130 124 117 116 125 132 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 5 4 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 77 74 72 68 66 60 63 57 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 66 83 87 107 115 95 101 90 106 79 72 45 200 MB DIV 40 41 43 20 26 16 -14 -14 -22 -42 -37 -40 -32 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -7 -1 -1 -1 5 3 7 3 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 186 251 328 368 362 482 723 980 1267 1521 1748 1901 2022 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.5 18.9 17.9 16.8 15.8 14.9 14.6 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.7 108.7 109.7 110.7 112.9 115.5 118.2 121.0 123.3 125.3 126.9 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 11 13 14 14 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 23 13 16 13 4 0 0 0 1 5 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 16. 14. 11. 11. 11. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 08/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 08/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##