* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/24/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 85 87 90 92 90 94 92 93 87 75 V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 85 87 90 92 90 94 92 93 87 54 V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 80 80 81 82 84 84 86 88 87 80 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 8 7 7 13 10 11 12 25 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 8 10 9 1 3 -1 -1 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 232 262 252 255 253 253 221 255 208 217 181 200 200 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.1 26.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 155 158 164 155 151 153 149 139 122 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 139 141 144 149 137 131 131 127 118 103 88 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -49.7 -49.7 -48.7 -48.7 -47.4 -47.4 -47.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 6 7 2 3 700-500 MB RH 57 55 59 64 64 66 65 67 63 59 50 42 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 28 28 30 31 34 35 40 40 44 46 42 850 MB ENV VOR 73 72 77 89 94 88 79 79 102 128 171 185 154 200 MB DIV 77 35 33 58 25 82 15 76 88 93 130 76 24 700-850 TADV 16 26 30 25 19 25 21 25 14 10 -4 4 -5 LAND (KM) 146 188 214 242 276 386 287 318 331 185 11 20 -21 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.8 23.4 25.1 27.2 29.1 30.9 32.9 35.2 37.7 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.8 73.5 74.2 74.9 76.2 77.2 77.4 77.0 76.5 76.0 75.3 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 72 68 71 62 29 56 28 32 38 35 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 11. 15. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 10. 14. 12. 13. 7. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/24/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 10( 23) 12( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 24( 40) 39( 63) 51( 82) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)