* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/24/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 36 41 50 58 64 65 63 56 49 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 36 41 50 58 64 65 63 56 49 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 48 52 51 47 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 5 7 11 18 37 46 46 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 7 6 8 10 -2 0 2 -1 -1 -3 -10 SHEAR DIR 71 42 32 350 16 42 311 281 260 237 236 243 237 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.4 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.1 24.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 125 123 116 108 104 104 105 105 102 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 122 122 118 110 101 96 94 95 96 92 89 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 64 63 56 56 53 54 52 50 52 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 16 17 18 18 19 20 19 22 20 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 100 105 112 113 109 100 96 70 80 56 40 24 7 200 MB DIV 26 29 60 59 34 36 21 11 20 30 44 26 43 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 1 4 8 LAND (KM) 526 624 728 845 966 1194 1377 1507 1541 1524 1490 1469 1432 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.9 18.2 19.5 21.0 22.7 24.7 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 22.1 23.2 24.2 25.4 26.5 28.6 30.2 31.2 31.7 31.7 31.4 31.0 30.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 7 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. -1. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 39. 40. 38. 31. 24. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/24/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/24/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED