* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/24/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 98 99 101 102 101 99 96 98 95 84 68 V (KT) LAND 95 97 98 99 101 102 101 99 96 98 95 84 58 V (KT) LGE mod 95 99 100 99 99 97 94 90 89 90 85 73 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 12 7 8 9 16 15 15 20 24 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 5 8 10 4 3 -1 -2 0 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 261 265 252 271 275 204 247 221 246 172 185 185 225 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.4 26.9 24.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 157 163 159 151 150 150 144 125 105 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 141 145 149 141 132 128 129 125 106 88 77 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -49.7 -49.6 -49.0 -49.0 -47.9 -48.1 -46.8 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 64 64 66 68 69 69 64 56 43 33 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 28 27 29 30 30 35 37 36 44 48 46 41 850 MB ENV VOR 81 78 91 95 88 89 70 91 107 154 166 176 172 200 MB DIV 49 31 73 31 36 87 59 109 72 116 99 52 23 700-850 TADV 26 35 28 23 21 29 29 20 11 0 -6 -5 29 LAND (KM) 155 222 235 278 338 354 369 418 277 76 63 46 -13 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.4 24.2 26.3 28.2 29.9 31.8 34.2 37.3 39.5 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.2 73.8 74.7 75.5 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.1 75.0 73.8 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 11 10 9 9 11 14 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 69 69 46 61 77 69 33 31 37 19 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -5. -12. -18. -23. -27. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 7. 14. 17. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. 3. 0. -11. -27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/24/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 23( 50) 24( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 41( 50) 62( 81) 59( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)