* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/24/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 58 64 66 63 58 52 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 58 64 66 63 58 52 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 47 50 50 46 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 7 9 3 5 12 23 32 41 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 9 11 11 5 0 0 1 1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 53 351 360 351 356 319 265 256 228 245 240 246 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 25.7 25.2 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 124 120 111 106 104 105 106 107 107 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 121 120 116 105 98 95 95 96 96 95 93 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 64 59 57 54 54 54 47 48 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 18 18 20 19 20 22 23 23 22 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 99 106 108 106 99 98 76 80 75 58 34 28 22 200 MB DIV 27 64 80 42 58 30 -14 19 47 77 51 35 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 1 10 5 6 LAND (KM) 612 713 820 940 1063 1285 1461 1567 1628 1700 1776 1883 1999 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.4 17.5 18.7 19.9 21.2 22.5 23.7 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 23.0 24.1 25.1 26.3 27.4 29.4 30.9 31.8 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.2 36.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 4. 0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 33. 39. 41. 38. 33. 27. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/24/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/24/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED