* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 105 106 108 110 105 105 101 97 94 83 63 V (KT) LAND 100 103 105 106 108 110 105 105 101 97 94 83 45 V (KT) LGE mod 100 105 106 106 105 101 97 93 91 89 82 69 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 12 5 4 4 10 17 14 13 23 29 46 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 11 12 15 5 3 0 -2 2 9 2 1 SHEAR DIR 266 262 294 270 345 226 267 228 232 191 205 190 213 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.0 26.5 23.2 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 160 162 157 150 152 149 138 120 95 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 143 146 146 139 131 131 127 117 103 83 70 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.0 -49.4 -49.3 -48.7 -48.3 -47.5 -47.3 -46.1 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 9 10 8 9 6 7 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 59 66 64 67 67 68 70 66 62 53 46 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 31 32 31 34 37 37 41 41 43 49 49 41 850 MB ENV VOR 76 91 92 83 92 86 64 93 113 168 200 210 200 200 MB DIV 43 77 45 51 79 40 76 71 107 110 133 65 50 700-850 TADV 39 39 19 20 19 26 36 16 9 0 5 -34 42 LAND (KM) 212 238 275 347 393 328 372 344 169 32 120 44 -7 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.6 23.3 24.2 25.0 26.7 28.8 31.0 33.1 35.4 37.7 40.5 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 74.0 74.6 75.3 75.9 76.8 76.8 76.7 76.5 75.6 74.0 72.2 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 70 41 68 74 39 33 28 37 35 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -33. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 10. 12. 17. 17. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 5. 5. 1. -3. -6. -17. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 28( 59) 29( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 29 64( 74) 85( 96) 82( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)