* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 40 46 58 67 71 72 67 61 54 49 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 40 46 58 67 71 72 67 61 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 52 55 53 47 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 7 5 12 31 40 35 42 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 12 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -11 SHEAR DIR 39 9 23 29 38 21 241 251 240 243 246 236 230 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.0 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 129 126 121 111 106 104 106 106 104 101 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 126 121 116 105 98 95 96 95 92 89 89 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 61 57 59 53 52 50 43 45 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 17 18 19 21 22 22 23 21 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 111 112 113 108 105 94 69 82 69 42 25 15 28 200 MB DIV 74 98 56 53 52 22 21 39 61 49 10 7 22 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 4 5 7 9 LAND (KM) 833 930 1030 1125 1224 1389 1515 1590 1600 1606 1608 1654 1737 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 16.1 17.6 19.1 20.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 28.9 30.4 31.4 32.1 32.4 32.5 32.5 32.8 33.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 11 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. 2. -2. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 33. 42. 46. 47. 42. 36. 29. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)