* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 08/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 24 18 14 14 16 15 18 24 22 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 1 2 -1 -1 1 0 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 70 89 104 119 112 119 139 166 186 194 205 205 224 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 131 130 128 123 118 112 112 110 106 102 100 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 71 67 67 66 63 62 60 61 55 53 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 91 94 93 90 99 96 98 87 64 46 28 23 200 MB DIV 44 45 42 17 5 -10 -21 -26 -48 -39 -31 -10 -12 700-850 TADV -1 1 2 0 2 3 3 0 3 2 2 7 -1 LAND (KM) 415 457 509 590 675 845 1031 1184 1328 1463 1561 1665 1774 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.3 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.1 17.4 17.1 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.2 112.9 113.8 114.6 116.3 118.3 120.2 122.0 123.9 125.6 127.5 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 8 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 346 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 08/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 08/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##