* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 107 110 112 108 105 104 102 100 92 78 60 V (KT) LAND 105 107 107 110 112 108 105 104 102 100 92 44 32 V (KT) LGE mod 105 107 107 107 106 101 96 94 92 88 76 39 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 10 7 8 14 10 17 19 24 34 42 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 9 4 1 1 -1 -1 1 10 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 261 250 259 241 176 258 203 247 213 207 183 205 211 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.1 23.9 17.9 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 162 164 161 152 153 152 143 127 100 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 147 149 144 134 132 130 122 110 88 71 68 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -49.4 -49.0 -48.2 -48.3 -48.0 -48.1 -47.0 -46.9 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 7 9 5 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 66 65 65 66 67 67 67 61 54 47 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 28 33 35 34 36 40 41 45 48 46 40 850 MB ENV VOR 91 103 90 87 91 59 81 92 132 162 183 196 192 200 MB DIV 67 48 65 71 99 39 113 82 137 124 112 65 72 700-850 TADV 38 20 17 22 19 21 22 21 13 4 -19 27 8 LAND (KM) 231 279 328 388 336 308 359 224 84 121 73 -29 -203 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.5 24.2 25.2 26.1 28.3 30.3 32.2 34.3 36.9 40.1 43.4 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 75.0 75.7 76.3 76.8 77.3 77.4 76.9 75.8 74.5 72.8 70.8 68.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 13 16 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 66 9 63 57 73 37 38 40 20 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -10. -19. -27. -34. -40. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 9. 12. 15. 12. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 5. 7. 3. 0. 0. -3. -5. -13. -27. -45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/24/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 30( 63) 28( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 65 72( 90) 78( 98) 33( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)