* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/25/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 108 110 110 107 108 104 104 96 84 65 46 V (KT) LAND 105 106 108 110 110 107 108 104 104 96 84 40 33 V (KT) LGE mod 105 106 106 105 103 97 94 94 93 85 70 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 10 13 13 12 12 8 18 29 47 55 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 7 0 6 3 -2 2 0 7 6 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 226 247 228 183 232 250 243 208 194 192 187 198 207 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.7 27.9 26.1 22.7 16.6 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 164 161 155 151 152 148 137 116 93 75 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 148 144 137 131 130 127 117 100 82 71 70 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -49.7 -49.6 -49.3 -48.7 -48.5 -48.0 -47.5 -46.2 -47.2 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 9 10 6 8 3 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 66 64 65 63 62 55 54 41 39 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 29 34 36 38 39 43 43 48 48 48 40 33 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 83 87 76 64 95 116 160 202 202 193 168 200 MB DIV 43 41 89 115 43 71 66 104 132 133 84 63 82 700-850 TADV 24 21 18 18 28 24 16 18 0 -1 -16 19 -5 LAND (KM) 284 342 386 356 306 337 338 189 84 129 10 -89 29 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.1 26.1 27.1 29.1 30.9 33.1 35.4 38.1 40.9 44.7 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.6 76.2 76.6 77.0 77.2 76.9 76.2 75.0 73.6 72.0 70.0 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 12 14 15 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 2 73 55 79 30 33 39 34 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -20. -28. -36. -42. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 12. 12. 12. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. 3. -1. -1. -9. -21. -40. -59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/25/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/25/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/25/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 28( 47) 29( 63) 27( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 81 83( 97) 74( 99) 32( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)