* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/25/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 59 68 72 72 68 67 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 59 68 72 72 68 67 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 53 61 63 61 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 25 17 13 17 3 6 13 15 24 20 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -3 0 0 -6 2 -2 4 8 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 49 47 52 58 51 34 351 322 285 267 274 272 240 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 131 130 125 120 115 111 111 112 114 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 129 129 127 118 112 107 102 100 101 103 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 58 56 53 53 53 54 48 49 42 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 16 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 104 91 82 79 80 67 74 77 69 55 41 56 57 200 MB DIV 68 41 36 37 22 6 20 33 53 30 4 35 21 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -5 -2 0 5 10 8 5 5 LAND (KM) 1242 1348 1455 1564 1674 1824 1891 1943 2006 2091 2194 2201 2226 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 11 11 12 8 5 2 0 0 1 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 34. 43. 47. 47. 43. 42. 37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/25/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/25/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)