* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/25/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 103 106 104 105 105 103 99 92 77 57 44 V (KT) LAND 100 101 103 106 104 105 105 103 99 92 40 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 98 97 95 93 92 92 88 75 36 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 10 11 15 11 15 21 28 39 53 59 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 3 4 2 0 -1 0 0 6 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 256 245 183 224 223 187 236 186 186 188 196 208 201 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.1 23.9 17.5 15.7 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 157 153 152 152 143 128 100 76 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 146 138 135 131 130 123 110 88 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -49.3 -49.6 -49.2 -48.5 -48.6 -47.5 -48.3 -47.1 -47.1 -47.6 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 10 10 8 9 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 65 66 63 64 65 67 58 56 54 53 54 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 35 34 36 32 35 40 42 44 46 43 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 82 68 56 73 88 140 160 154 141 142 184 200 MB DIV 44 82 114 66 31 117 59 136 101 127 87 74 96 700-850 TADV 17 24 22 16 16 14 16 10 -4 -19 -37 34 -47 LAND (KM) 308 370 306 277 278 365 243 84 113 59 -78 -106 -127 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.0 30.1 32.1 34.3 36.9 40.2 44.0 47.8 51.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 76.5 77.1 77.3 77.5 77.3 76.7 75.8 74.6 73.0 71.0 68.5 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 16 19 21 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 38 76 70 15 41 37 39 20 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -17. -25. -33. -39. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 14. 11. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -8. -23. -43. -56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/25/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/25/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/25/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 26( 57) 27( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 53 77( 89) 21( 91) 9( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)