* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL902011 08/25/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 64 72 74 74 70 64 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 64 72 74 74 70 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 47 55 63 69 69 65 61 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 16 13 15 5 5 7 10 15 21 22 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 4 1 1 3 0 5 6 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 55 51 60 47 46 13 15 317 299 272 277 245 236 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 128 126 121 116 113 111 111 112 114 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 125 123 120 113 107 104 102 102 103 103 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 53 51 53 57 60 54 53 46 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 17 18 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 88 81 76 74 69 59 60 53 40 29 20 25 43 200 MB DIV 50 36 35 26 16 27 50 63 55 32 6 5 14 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 3 10 10 8 11 LAND (KM) 1357 1448 1539 1614 1689 1787 1814 1858 1929 2029 2087 2155 2210 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 11 10 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 34. 42. 44. 44. 40. 34. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 TEN 08/25/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 TEN 08/25/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)