* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102011 08/25/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 54 62 67 68 67 62 59 53 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 54 62 67 68 67 62 59 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 45 54 62 65 63 58 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 14 13 10 7 4 14 21 26 27 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 -4 -1 -1 0 2 3 3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 52 52 38 31 31 1 283 277 284 282 271 248 245 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 126 123 120 116 113 111 111 112 113 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 120 116 112 108 104 101 101 101 102 103 101 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 48 48 49 47 49 47 49 47 45 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 95 88 87 85 81 87 91 75 39 23 12 30 15 200 MB DIV 31 29 31 15 14 30 27 28 17 29 11 -4 -17 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -3 -4 0 0 3 6 9 7 5 8 LAND (KM) 1510 1608 1707 1761 1817 1900 1999 2051 2072 2105 2168 2243 2311 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.8 20.0 21.0 22.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.4 33.3 33.9 34.4 35.2 36.1 36.5 36.7 37.2 37.9 38.7 39.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 32. 37. 38. 37. 32. 29. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102011 TEN 08/25/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102011 TEN 08/25/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)