* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/25/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 34 33 31 31 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 34 33 31 31 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 22 24 27 31 33 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 35 38 31 20 13 10 9 13 26 30 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 0 2 0 1 -4 2 2 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 227 229 243 256 266 252 284 329 30 69 83 83 175 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 127 130 134 137 139 140 137 135 136 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 111 113 115 118 121 123 123 120 117 118 118 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 10 9 6 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 47 44 48 48 42 45 46 55 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -23 -23 -25 -28 -35 -68 -88 -124 -140 -97 -52 200 MB DIV 40 34 7 8 10 -10 2 -39 -14 -46 16 24 20 700-850 TADV 0 4 3 -3 -2 -2 2 0 0 0 -2 -15 6 LAND (KM) 1988 1912 1839 1769 1701 1582 1479 1402 1384 1409 1368 1090 800 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.3 24.6 25.4 26.3 27.3 28.5 29.9 31.5 33.4 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.2 49.0 49.9 50.7 52.4 54.2 56.1 57.9 59.9 61.8 63.8 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 17 19 20 23 24 18 14 14 12 20 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. 6. 6. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/25/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 08/25/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/25/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)