* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/25/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 95 98 99 100 100 96 86 75 61 45 34 V (KT) LAND 95 95 95 98 99 100 100 64 54 34 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 95 94 92 91 91 92 92 61 67 35 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 7 13 15 18 25 26 52 63 60 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 4 0 0 -1 -2 8 1 1 -3 6 SHEAR DIR 215 248 230 237 222 221 182 219 195 218 222 224 213 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.4 25.5 20.6 16.2 13.7 5.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 153 151 153 152 144 130 112 85 75 72 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 138 133 130 132 129 121 111 97 77 71 69 67 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -49.3 -48.8 -47.8 -48.1 -47.6 -48.3 -48.6 -49.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 10 7 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 64 64 62 59 52 44 34 32 49 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 37 36 38 39 41 44 44 40 40 38 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 84 77 56 63 83 89 145 176 176 152 155 129 75 200 MB DIV 110 61 82 92 91 37 141 115 81 72 50 23 13 700-850 TADV 18 22 25 15 18 23 6 9 0 -3 -1 -1 8 LAND (KM) 292 259 263 289 330 186 48 -16 -4 -154 -225 -196 -24 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.4 32.4 34.3 36.5 39.3 42.9 47.3 51.8 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 77.6 77.9 77.9 77.8 77.4 76.9 76.0 74.6 72.7 70.2 66.7 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 13 17 22 25 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 28 47 37 43 56 37 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -17. -25. -33. -39. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 2. 2. 0. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -9. -20. -34. -50. -61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/25/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/25/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/25/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 21( 46) 22( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 51 35( 68) 22( 75) 6( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)