* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 101 104 105 102 99 92 82 63 46 33 23 V (KT) LAND 100 100 101 104 105 102 82 74 43 31 28 31 21 V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 98 98 97 98 81 75 45 31 29 30 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 6 10 8 15 23 30 53 67 66 58 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 4 0 -3 -2 0 6 0 1 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 237 221 189 179 234 213 177 207 199 214 220 218 216 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 27.9 26.3 22.7 16.3 14.9 8.7 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 153 153 149 136 119 94 76 74 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 131 131 131 125 115 103 84 72 71 68 68 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.2 -49.6 -48.7 -48.8 -48.5 -47.8 -47.6 -47.3 -48.2 -49.0 -49.5 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 10 10 6 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 63 65 64 62 57 48 46 31 33 44 51 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 36 37 41 41 39 41 43 45 40 34 31 26 850 MB ENV VOR 76 50 60 81 94 112 162 185 165 161 143 163 183 200 MB DIV 69 70 88 75 61 111 126 103 92 55 74 22 32 700-850 TADV 23 20 15 10 13 9 -8 7 -17 12 -26 -80 -98 LAND (KM) 277 298 311 324 258 97 -33 8 -110 -187 -89 38 610 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.6 31.5 33.6 35.6 38.2 41.7 46.0 51.0 54.7 57.2 LONG(DEG W) 77.4 77.6 77.7 77.6 77.4 77.0 76.3 75.1 73.4 70.0 65.1 58.0 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 10 12 16 22 27 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 45 35 45 54 47 13 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -33. -42. -48. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 2. -4. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 5. 2. -1. -8. -18. -37. -54. -67. -77. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/26/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 23( 40) 27( 56) 24( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 64 44( 80) 22( 84) 1( 84) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)