* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102011 08/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 46 47 48 46 42 37 32 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 46 47 48 46 42 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 41 46 48 48 47 46 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 13 9 6 6 11 16 22 28 34 39 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -2 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 46 49 59 78 54 232 250 276 270 271 250 251 242 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 119 117 116 113 112 111 113 115 117 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 111 109 108 104 103 101 102 104 106 109 109 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 50 47 46 47 49 48 50 44 44 42 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 90 79 68 67 78 70 56 30 15 10 17 2 -14 200 MB DIV 19 0 -2 10 5 18 23 7 -4 0 -3 -6 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 4 4 3 7 14 18 LAND (KM) 1650 1706 1762 1814 1867 1955 2037 2123 2198 2231 2190 2139 2091 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.4 33.9 34.4 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.1 38.0 39.0 40.2 41.7 43.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 1 4 6 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 16. 12. 7. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102011 TEN 08/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102011 TEN 08/26/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)