* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 35 34 36 40 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 35 34 36 40 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 32 33 34 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 18 16 16 12 15 17 25 24 13 5 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 -4 -1 -3 2 0 1 0 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 229 240 251 253 288 301 4 47 69 85 87 189 236 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 135 137 139 141 141 141 140 139 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 118 120 122 123 124 124 123 121 119 114 110 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 7 6 700-500 MB RH 43 46 45 44 44 45 42 43 49 53 60 59 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -11 -11 -24 -33 -44 -76 -103 -134 -129 -93 -61 -54 200 MB DIV -8 -6 9 -13 -8 -12 -51 -27 -25 21 17 33 29 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -4 -3 9 6 LAND (KM) 1719 1646 1575 1512 1453 1352 1276 1250 1291 1267 1029 828 675 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.9 25.3 26.2 27.1 28.1 29.4 30.8 32.4 34.1 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.1 52.0 52.9 53.8 55.7 57.7 59.6 61.6 63.5 65.4 67.0 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 22 24 25 24 25 25 25 8 16 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 11. 15. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 08/26/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/26/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)