* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/26/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 97 99 99 99 94 87 70 51 34 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 95 97 99 99 99 94 87 40 31 29 25 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 95 95 94 94 94 90 78 37 30 29 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 12 14 11 32 45 63 76 66 56 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 -4 0 -1 7 4 -2 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 231 246 204 201 240 176 213 198 208 209 219 218 235 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.1 24.4 18.0 15.6 11.1 8.8 8.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 150 142 127 104 78 75 71 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 131 129 127 120 109 91 73 71 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -49.7 -49.5 -49.4 -48.4 -48.2 -47.3 -47.8 -48.4 -49.6 -50.1 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 7 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 67 65 63 62 53 51 39 36 41 52 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 37 40 40 41 40 40 44 41 35 29 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 85 99 92 142 179 179 160 155 110 127 166 200 MB DIV 80 97 107 78 34 120 96 114 63 66 49 54 34 700-850 TADV 17 25 15 9 14 8 7 0 31 -10 -30 -71 -25 LAND (KM) 332 351 329 280 209 28 68 60 -87 -57 -293 341 955 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.7 30.7 31.6 32.4 34.6 37.0 39.9 43.8 48.2 53.2 56.6 58.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 77.3 77.3 77.1 76.8 76.3 75.1 73.4 71.3 67.8 62.7 54.6 44.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 12 15 18 23 27 29 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 34 40 50 44 40 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -22. -31. -40. -45. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 3. -2. -7. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -8. -25. -44. -61. -75. -82. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/26/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 20( 34) 21( 48) 21( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 8( 14) 1( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)