* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/26/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 92 94 93 92 86 74 55 39 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 90 92 94 93 81 75 40 31 28 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 87 88 88 76 74 40 31 29 33 33 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 17 14 25 30 56 69 76 68 56 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 -5 -3 -2 7 5 5 -5 -9 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 240 164 186 225 207 159 205 196 201 209 214 227 246 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.4 25.3 19.8 15.8 14.7 8.8 9.1 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 149 144 130 110 83 74 73 69 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 131 126 122 111 96 76 71 70 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.7 -49.4 -49.6 -48.8 -48.2 -48.2 -47.1 -47.9 -48.6 -49.0 -50.2 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 6 6 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 62 59 55 51 43 41 45 53 49 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 40 41 41 39 39 42 43 38 34 28 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 61 80 97 90 108 157 167 155 150 144 125 149 199 200 MB DIV 87 117 85 54 85 118 153 115 86 83 47 30 25 700-850 TADV 16 11 15 11 9 -7 19 -32 -20 -67 -129 -115 -7 LAND (KM) 360 303 223 138 64 12 15 -89 -174 -100 50 638 1269 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 31.1 32.1 33.2 34.2 36.6 39.3 42.9 47.2 51.2 54.7 57.5 59.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.3 77.2 76.9 76.6 75.7 74.3 71.9 68.7 63.9 57.7 49.2 38.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 14 17 22 25 26 26 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 45 51 42 36 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -12. -22. -31. -39. -44. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 4. 4. 0. -3. -9. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 3. 2. -4. -16. -35. -51. -66. -77. -81. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/26/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/26/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 13( 23) 14( 34) 8( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 4( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)