* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102011 08/26/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 46 46 45 44 39 35 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 46 46 45 44 39 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 35 37 43 47 47 44 42 40 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 1 6 12 20 27 27 32 36 40 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 3 0 1 3 1 0 0 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 50 61 67 37 287 279 281 278 276 254 264 251 257 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 116 115 113 112 112 113 115 119 120 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 108 106 104 102 103 102 104 107 108 108 106 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 48 47 45 47 45 45 45 43 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 72 83 84 77 66 39 12 7 20 6 -14 -49 200 MB DIV 3 13 7 4 12 9 1 -5 -5 -6 -4 -9 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 4 5 4 6 9 13 9 LAND (KM) 1773 1825 1878 1927 1976 2078 2167 2178 2172 2151 2137 2139 2191 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 34.5 35.0 35.5 35.9 36.8 37.6 38.5 39.5 40.8 42.2 43.6 44.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 7 10 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 9. 5. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102011 TEN 08/26/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102011 TEN 08/26/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)